Hezbollah Rejects U.N. Peace, Invasion Imminent. Dumb Ox News

UPDATE 1: In case you think our reasoning here is all abstract and speculative, note that apart from our understanding of history and of human nature, we deal with concrete calculations of interest as we see them. Are the Arab elites worried about radical islam? Duh! Are Arab elites worried about Arab nationalist fanatics? Double duh! Here's a newsflash for the utopa-dopes (and for that FATHEAD MURTHA): Arab Gulf States have BILLIONS of dollars invested in developing Beirut!

Foreign investment, not just petro-dollars, has poured into Lebanon over the last few years. Why do you think the French and Russians are so concerned with destruction of "infrastructure"? Do you think they give a flip about human suffering? It's money bub. Have you all forgotten the OIL FOR BRIBES scam with the U.N. and our lovely "allies" in Iraq? The calculations of all the players are largely governed by concerns over existing investments and concerns for future growth (i.e. the way towards a more peaceful future).

Peace, stability, economic development, liberty and cultural modernization go hand in hand in the world, and the Middle East is no different. That's why what is happening there now MUST happen now--whether FATHEAD liars and crooks like Murtha like it or not. ...Further updates all weekend below at bottom of post...

And now back to our regularly scheduled chaos:

"It is normal that we should not accept Annan's plan." States a Hezbollah deputy to French journalists. "The only thing we accept is an unconditional cease fire followed by indirect negotiations for the exchange of prisoners."

In other words, what the terrorist puppets of Syria and Iran do NOT accept of Kofi's beautiful idea is that there should also be an immediate release of the Israeli hostages. Hezbollah wants to enter negotiations! Maybe call in Madeleine Albright or Warren Christopher to help out with that.

Pilots who dropped the 23 tons on a Hezbollah bunker had no idea they were aiming at the terrorist rat leader.

As part of his Al-Jazeera TV interview, Nasrallah says that the children killed by Hezbollah rockets in Nazareth are "martyrs for the Palestinian cause"!

Gee, now you can become a martyr even as a carefree child thanks to Hezbollah. Straight to heaven for you kiddie!

Meanwhile, the build-up along the borders with Lebanon and Gaza for a land invasion continues, along with more warnings for civilians to flee.

Calling up of reserves continued on Friday.

Recall our argument since the beginning, that this is all planned, that the land invasion will encounter either the use of WMD by Hezbollah (Nasrallah's "surprises") or the direct intervention of Syria, which in either case could lead to coalition forces moving against Syria and Iran (Iranian soldiers are in Lebanon directly assisting Hezbollah forces). Repeat: the Western powers and most of the Arab world are agreed upon the necessity for altering the Post-WWII dynamic in the Middle East now--they all have been saying this openly or indirectly for days.

And no, the "invasion" will not look like D-Day! It will be focused and flexible. Duh!

That's Scenario #1, and seems to me the most likely and most desirable at this point. E.g., before Korea sneaks a nuclear weapon to Iran.

(That would be Scenario #3, not out of the realm of possibility. Again, I maintain that Bush will go down in the history books for carrying out a brilliant diplomatic and military coup in isolating the "axis of evil" and of largely uniting the world--despite what the rhetoric of some leaders, and obviously ignoring the whining of socialists and other utopa-dopes in the media--against the forces of extermism and global instability.)

But to imagine that any other "pause" in the hostilities will change the determination of radical Islamists is pretty unhistorical, to say the least.

Whether one thinks in geopolitical terms, historical terms, or Providential terms, the time for decisive changes is ripe. Iraq, as we've always explained, was the lynchpin to change. Duh.

Secretary of State Rice is planning on leaving Sunday for the Middle East. If the Israeli's launch an invasion (Saturday night, after the end of the Sabbath?), it would come as an apparent affront to the U.S. THIS MAY WELL BE THE PLAN in order to separate the "identity of interests" that is taken for granted by enemy and friendly analysts alike and to reinvigorate the U.S.'s "honest broker" status.

Conditions for a ceasefire are now roughly shared by Israel, the U.N., the U.S. and its allies: i.e. acceptance of OLD U.N. resolutions, especially #1559, and a transfer of the Israeli soldiers to the Lebanese army or Red Cross.

Disarming of Hezbollah and demilitarizing southern Lebanon are key features that WILL NEVER be accepted by Hezbollah ...so you put 2 and 2 together. They must be forced out of that 20 mile missile-range zone. Once that happens, they will lose their significance, and one hopes the Lebanese will be able to track them down as the criminals that they are.

The necessary Israeli invasion MAY NOT lead to Hezbollah's use of WMD or to Syrian attacks. That's Scenario #2.

In such a case, as indicated in the Secretary's itinerary, she will stop in the Middle East, travel on to the Far East, and then return in about one week. That's ONE WEEK for Israel to launch and to secure that zone that could eventually be turned over to a NATO force...

Which scenario plays out depends on Hezbollah, Syria and Iran; but my guess is that the Israelis and Coalition Forces know what Hezbollah "surprises" they will be facing.

Update 2: Expedited shipments of U.S. precision bombs to Israel does NOT suggest a quick end to the fighting. Duh. The big question is how patient can Arab leaders be, how much public outrage over civilian casualties in Lebanon can they withstand? Answer: plenty.